So
the dance isn’t as delicate as I first observed. It’s more serious. Russian access to banking has been
curtailed. Russian oil has at least been
partially embargoed. As western
companies withdraw, modern conveniences like fast food brands, banking, and the
value of their currency, are evaporating for Russia’s citizens. Sanctions continue to escalate. A unified West is taking this Ukraine
invasion seriously. Not seriously enough
to go to WWIII, but enough to send a message.
So
I wonder. Will this message be
effective? Can sanctions stop bullets
and bombs? Perhaps they can trash a
currency or an economy. Sanctions might
not be fast acting enough to save Ukraine, but if Russia wants to remain a
world player in the long-term, it’s going to have to work its way back into the
world economy over time, or figure out how to go it alone without engaging the
west. Can sanctions stop bombs and
bullets? Certainly not in a day or a
week, and that totally sucks for Ukraine and all the people there, but if it
turns out an invading country destroys its own well-being for generations to
come in the process, the next time a country wants to be an unprovoked
aggressor it might have to weigh the risk to its own survival that would
entail. Maybe economic sanctions can’t
stop these bullets and bombs in Ukraine, but if the sanctions are persistent, they
might right now be stopping future bullets and bombs.
No comments:
Post a Comment